Steve's Take on the 2010 Nominations

The nominations for 2010 have been announced, and already there seems to be some uproar regarding some of the people/films that did NOT receive nominations. Although every year has its significant omissions, this year seems to really have people upset. What’s all the fuss? Let’s break down each of the major categories and find out.

For Best Actor in a Leading Role, three no-brainers made the cut: Jesse Eisenberg, Colin Firth, and co-host James Franco (no, he’s not the first host to be nominated. 1987’s Paul Hogan was nominated for his screenplay for Crocodile Dundee – let the eye-rolling commence) Jeff Bridges snuck in for True Grit, but I don’t think he’s got a shot at going back-to-back. The final spot went to Javier Bardem for the Mexican film, Biutiful. This seemed to surprise people, especially those rooting for Mark Wahlberg in The Fighter.

I have yet to see Biutiful, but Marky Mark didn’t really do anything out of the ordinary to warrant a nomination. Sure, he put on his Bahsten accent, but that’s probably natural. At no time did I not think it was Wahlberg. Sure, he was good, but I wasn’t taken to a place where the actor and the role are inseparable. This unlike Colin Firth’s portrayal of stammering King George VI, where when he succeeds in speaking correctly, you cheer. I was lost in his character. He was the best, and he will win. Guaranteed. So does it really matter if Wahlberg didn’t make the list? No. There may as well not even be 5 nominees. I will say, though, that Ryan Gosling turned in one hell of a performance in Blue Valentine. He deserved to at least be recognized, even if it meant a losing campaign.

In the category of Best Actress in a Leading Role, controversy rears its ugly head again (and again for no reason). Natalie Portman was so outstanding in Black Swan, I’ll go so far as to say that without Portman, there would be no movie. Director Darren Aronofsky (more on him in a while) pushed her to places that no one thought possible. If all goes the way it should, Natalie goes home with Oscar.

To be nice, let’s look at the others. Nicole Kidman was good in the depressing Rabbit Hole, but her male counterpart (Aaron Eckhart) was better. Same goes for Michelle Williams in Blue Valentine. Gosling was way better, as discussed above, but she got the nod instead of him. Jennifer Lawrence made Winter’s Bone what it was, but what it was isn’t very good compared to the rest. Then there’s Annette Benning. She turned in an OK performance in an OK movie about lesbians, and suddenly she’s the new Meryl Streep. Am I the only one who thought that the other lesbian, Julianne Moore, was actually better? She actually acted, and if someone was going to get nominated, it should have been her – but even that would be a stretch. The problem is: the Academy loves Benning. If there’s going to be an upset, it’ll be here. And at that point, either myself or Kristin will throw the remote through the television. If it’s any consolation, Annette, at least you won’t lose for the 3rd time to Hillary Swank.

For Supporting Actress, both Amy Adams and Melissa Leo turn in great performances in The Fighter. Jacki Weaver got nominated for Animal Kingdom, which I have not seen yet. Helena Bohnam Carter was good, but not great in The King’s Speech. Carter’s role was pivotal to the film, but I don’t think she acted it to the point of award recognition. Hailee Steinfeld of True Grit rounds out the five. The race is between Leo, who is incredible as Alice Eklund, and Steinfeld, who turned the cinematic world on its ear as the 13 year old star of the John Wayne remake. Leo is probably the best, but the Academy loves to reward first-timers and children, so Steinfeld does stand a chance here. There’s an interesting debate going on about which category Hailee fits in to, though. Her role is the lead in the film, so she could have easily been nominated in that category. However, the folks behind the True Grit campaign figured she had a better shot at winning if she’s in the supporting category (and not up against Natalie Portman), so they represented her as a supporting role. This is all part of the political game that makes the Oscars so much fun. Supporting Actress is always a wild-card category, but I predict Melissa Leo edges out the rest.

In the Best Supporting Actor category, we have John Hawks in Winters Bone. He’s creepy and mean, but I think this is a tip of the hat nomination. Jeremy Renner does a good job in The Town, but it probably won’t be enough. Mark Ruffalo shouldn’t be 100 yards from this competition, as his role in The Kids Are All Right was no more a great acting performance than Michael J. Fox in Back to the Future. Yeah, I said it. The race here is between Geoffrey Rush in The King’s Speech, and Christian Bale from The Fighter. Rush is a charming character in a charming, British, Academy-friendly film. That bodes well for his chances, as sometimes it’s the character – not the actor – that gets recognized, fair or unfair. However, when I compare his acting to that of Christian Bale, I begin to see that the race isn’t as close as it may appear. Bale was beyond good. He transformed into a character that is so far removed from Batman that you won’t even recognize him. For that reason, I predict Bale to win.

The race for Best Director brings the greatest controversy yet. Inception director, Christopher Nolan, was left out of the list of nominees. Inception was Nolan’s creation from start to finish. It has a brilliant screenplay and even more brilliant special effects, and that is all thanks to Nolan. It is my opinion that the idea of “Best Director” goes to “Best overall vision and execution” of the script provided. If Nolan isn’t at least in the top 5, I apparently don’t know what we’re judging. One could argue that the Academy doesn’t usually reward action films in any categories other than sound and visual effects. This is an argument that could hold up, but that doesn’t make it right. I don’t think Nolan would have won if he was nominated, but I think he deserves to sit at the table with the rest of the contenders.

The ones who actually made the cut are David Fincher for The Social Network, David O Russell for The Fighter, Tom Hooper for The King’s Speech, Darren Aronofsky for Black Swan, and the Cohen Brothers for True Grit. David O Russell made a significant contribution to the success of his film, but I think there are too many cooks in the kitchen for him to win. Same goes for the Cohens, who just won 3 years ago for No Country For Old Men. The Cohens are Academy darlings, though, and they always get some love, which could explain why they are on this list instead of Nolan. Darren Aronofsky, by the definition I laid out above, was the best director of the ones nominated. Black Swan could have been a train wreck, but his vision made it a masterpiece. He deserves this Oscar more than any of the other nominees. Unfortunately, it will go to either Fincher or Hooper. The Kings Speech has a ton of momentum going into Oscar night, and if the Academy decides to honor The Social Network as Best Picture, they may give the Directing statue to Hooper. The reverse could be true as well. If Speech upsets the finale, maybe Fincher gets this award. Usually, they don’t split the two, but it has happened. 61 of the 82 previous Best Directors saw their film win Best Picture, so the odds are likely that one film will walk away with both. Wait for the Directors Guild to announce their annual winner, and we’ll have a better idea. Only 6 times have the DGA and the Oscar not gone to the same person. I’ll say Fincher wins this one by a nose.

Finally, there’s Best Picture. Winter’s Bone, True Grit, Toy Story 3, 127 Hours, Inception, and The Kids Are All Right don’t really have a chance. Winter’s Bone was a mess of a movie that, for some reason, people in the Academy loved. True Grit was a great film, but I think there are too many that are better for it to walk away with Oscar. Toy Story 3 was the highest grossing film of 2010, which is something the Academy likes. It’s also a feel-good story. However, I think the Best Animated Film Oscar will be all the reward Pixar and company get. 127 Hours is independent greatness, and it’s a film that all aspiring film students should watch. However, it can’t compete with these other films. The Kids Are All Right is about gay people keeping a family together, which pushes all the right social buttons to make the top 10. However, I still feel like America got duped by its “Hey you – be a better person” message, and they have their blinders on about what truly makes a great MOVIE. Inception was probably my favorite film of the year, and like I said before, it’s a shame that action movies don’t get any recognition. Clearly, this movie would not have made the Best Picture list if there were still only 5 nominees. If the Academy thinks that expanding to 10 just to say “thanks” to films like Inception is OK, then they clearly don’t know what they’re doing. Thank God for the preferential voting in this category, because that could actually help these fan-friendly popcorn movies get somewhere in the race.

The Fighter and Black Swan will probably get some #1 votes, but probably not enough to sneak out with a win. The Fighter is very good. It’s a strong, true story film, but I didn’t get “Best Picture” from it. Black Swan was more artsy than some people would have liked, but I think it added to the depth of the film. I wouldn’t be upset at all if Swan won, but I don’t think it has a real chance either.

The race here is no doubt between The Social Network and The Kings Speech. This is going to be one of those races that is too close to call and will probably come down to the wire, with the winner being an actual surprise. Fans of both films make valid arguments as to why their choice should win. Speech is a traditional Academy-esque favorite. It’s a true story, set in the past, it features someone with a disability, and the acting is superb on all fronts. People in the Network camp also have the true story factor, but there’s more. Fincher’s film, with Aaron Sorkin’s award winning screenplay, is actually a social event. 500 million people have Facebook accounts, and that makes 500 million people who have a vested interest in how this story came to be. This is a movie about greed, betrayal, and the need to do something important in your life. It’s a current event, and it’s relevant, which resonates well with many voters (who probably all have their own Facebook accounts). Social Network has won almost every award so far, so it definitely has momentum. However, The King’s Speech leads with 12 nominations, and I think it has a REAL good chance at an upset. It’s so close, in fact, that I’m not even ready to predict a winner – because I don’t know.

By the way, if anyone is wondering how I would have ranked the 10 Best Picture nominees on my ballot (if I had one), here it is:
The Social Network
Inception
The King’s Speech
Black Swan
True Grit
The Fighter
Toy Story 3
127 Hours
The Kids Are All Right
Winter’s Bone

We’ll see how it all turns out on Feb 27th.

-Steve