Are the Golden Globes the Real Oscar Predictors?

“The biggest party in Hollywood” is just that. The Golden Globe awards, governed by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, have often been considered the pre-curser to the Oscar show. But are they really?

The first big award show of the year honors both television and film, and I happen to like that. Then again, I like just about any awards show. But this one is just fun. Reason number 1: the stars of TV and movies are fed dinner and encouraged to drink lots of champagne prior to the telecast. That means many get loaded, and you can never predict what will be said at the podium. Makes for a very entertaining watch.

The good starts and stops, really, at reason number 1. In recent years, the HFPA has seemed to stray farther and farther from the Academy. For starters, the Globes honor films, actors, and actresses in 2 categories: Drama and Comedy/Musical. This creates a couple of problems:

1) Comparing these awards to the Oscars is not comparing apples to apples. The Academy honors “Best Picture,” and let’s face it, Oscar doesn’t usually recognize comedy performances. So, every year, a film wins “Best Picture” at the Globes, and probably has no shot of even being on the Oscar Ballot.

2) Who decides what constitutes a comedy or a musical? Well, the studios can lobby for nomination in any category they choose. Take 2010’s “Love and Other Drugs.” This was clearly not a comedy OR a musical, yet it received nominations in those categories. It’s like entering the starting quarterback in the Special Olympics so he can get a medal.

So no – the Globes are not any sort of litmus test for the Oscars. I’ll tell you what are: The Screen Actor’s Guild awards. These are awards for actors, voted on by actors (hmmm – just like the Academy Awards…). If you want to win your office pool on Oscar Night, you cant go wrong copy-and-pasting the winners from the SAGs.

-Steve